Fuzzy optimization of multi-period carbon capture and storage systems with parametric uncertainties

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an important technology option for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions. In practice, CO₂ sources are easy to characterize, while the estimation of relevant properties of storage sites, such as capacity and injection rate limit (i.e., injectivity), is subject to considerable uncertainty. Such uncertainties need to be accounted for in planning CCS deployment on a large scale for effective use of available storage sites. In particular, the uncertainty introduces technical risks that may result from overestimating the limits of given storage sites. In this work, a fuzzy mixed integer linear program (FMILP) is developed for multi-period CCS systems, accounting for the technical risk arising from uncertainties in estimates of sink parameters, while still attaining satisfactory CO₂ emissions reduction. In the model, sources are assumed to have precisely known CO₂ flow rates and operating lives, while geological sinks are characterized with imprecise fuzzy capacity and injectivity data. Three case studies are then presented to illustrate the model. Results of these examples illustrate the tradeoff inherent in planning CCS systems under parametric uncertainty.     

Gas Transfer Coefficient Evaluation in the Mediterranean Sea Using Bomb Produced Radiocarbon

A study on the carbon dioxide exchange at the water-air interface in the Western Mediterranean Sea was carried out. the attention was focused on the mean air-sea flux estimations by radiocarbon profiles and bomb ¹⁴C concentration atmospheric data. Sampling techniques and analytical methods are reported; mass balance evaluations on data recorded during the MED'92 cruise are presented and discussed briefly.     

生物炭对土壤水肥热效应的影响试验研究

本文通过野外大田小区试验以番茄（Lycopersicon esculentum Mill）为供试作物,通过在土壤中施加不同含量生物炭（Biochar）研究生物炭对土壤含水率、有机碳、速效养分含量和土壤温度的影响,从而寻求一个较为合适的施用量,为生物炭在内蒙古地区的大面积推广提供科学的理论依据。试验共设5个处理,3个重复：不施加生物炭（CK）,生物炭使用量分别为10 t·hm^-2（A）,20 t·hm^-2（B）,40 t·hm^-2（C）,60 t·hm^-2（D）,在各生育期取土样测定土壤含水率、有机碳、速效养分含量,并在各生育期连续3天测定土壤地表温度。试验结果表明：不同处理下土壤含水率随生物炭施用量增加呈先增加后减小的趋势,且均高于对照组,其中施炭量为40 t·hm^-2处理的土壤含水率增幅最明显,0～10 cm土层各生育期土壤含水率较对照组最大增幅分别为20.8%、13.7%、21.8%,10～20 cm土层各生育期土壤含水率较对照组最大增幅分别为33.9%、17.1%、21.3%;不同处理下土壤温度随着生物炭施用量的增加而升高,两者具有显著的正相关关系,各生育期各处理土壤地表温度较对照组最大增幅分别为58.1%、31.3%、55.8%;不同处理土壤有机碳含量随着生物炭施用量的增加而增大,番茄各生育期各处理土壤有机碳含量较对照组最大增幅分别为80.9%、62.7%、63.9%;不同处理土壤中碱解氮、速效钾、速效磷含量均随生物炭施用量的增加而呈现先增大后减小的趋势,且均大于对照组,各生育期各处理土壤碱解氮较对照组最大增幅分别为92.7%、45.7%、106.5%,速效磷最大增幅分别为120.1%、39.3%、250.4%,速效钾最大增幅分别为86.2%、118.5%、203.4%。综上所述,生物炭对于砂壤土具有保水、保肥、保温的特性,对于提高土壤水肥利用效率,增加土壤有机碳具有重要的作用,而且通过试验验证40 t·hm^-2的施?     

Carbon abatement in the fuel market with biofuels: Implications for second best policies

A carbon tax on fuel would penalize carbon intensive fuels like gasoline and shift fuel consumption to less carbon intensive alternatives like biofuels. Since biofuel production competes for land with agricultural production, a carbon tax could increase land rents and raise food prices. This paper analyzes the welfare effect of a carbon tax on fuel consisting of gasoline and biofuel in the presence of a labor tax, with and without a biofuel subsidy. The market impacts of a carbon tax are also compared with that of a subsidy. Findings show that if a carbon tax increases biofuel demand, the tax interaction effect due to higher fuel prices is exacerbated by higher land rent and food prices and greater erosion of the carbon tax base. Thus, the second best optimal carbon tax for fuel is lower with biofuel in the fuel mix, especially if biofuel is subsidized.     

Unintended consequences of price controls: An application to allowance markets

Price controls established in a cap-and-trade allowance market are intended to reduce cost uncertainty by constraining allowance prices between a ceiling and floor; however, they could provide opportunities for strategic actions by firms that would lower government revenue and increase emissions. In particular, when the ceiling price is supported by introducing new allowances into the market, firms could choose to buy allowances at the ceiling price, regardless of the prevailing market price, in order to lower the equilibrium price of all allowances. Those purchases could either be transacted by firms intending to manipulate the market price or be induced through the introduction of inaccurate information about the cost of emissions abatement. Theory and simulations using allowance elasticity estimates for U.S. firms suggest that the manipulation could be profitable under the stylized setting and assumptions evaluated in the paper, although in practice many other conditions will determine its use.     

提高碳汇潜力：量化树种和造林模式对碳储量的影响

全球气候变化背景下,造林再造林固定的碳可以抵消温室气体减限排量。通过造林再造林增加森林面积可以增加林业碳汇,在土地面积有限的情况下,提高造林质量——在有限的造林面积上固定更多的碳是十分必要的。树种和造林模式的选择是增加森林生态系统碳汇的重要管理决策。文章综述了树种和造林模式对生态系统的碳储量的影响。树种从生物量的积累,凋落物和土壤碳储存,以及木材密度、碳贮存量等几个方面探讨其对生态系统碳库的影响。混交林能充分利用立地条件、改善树木营养状况,并且可以减少病虫害和森林火灾。同时分析了我国在森林经营方面存在的问题和改善途径,以期为该领域的研究提供参考。     

Modeling carbon sequestration under zero tillage at the regional scale. I. The effect of soil erosion

Zero tillage is recognized as a potential measure to sequester carbon dioxide in soils and to reduce CO₂ emissions from arable lands. An up-scaling approach of the output of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model with the information system SLISYS-BW has been used to estimate the CO₂-mitigation potential in the state of Baden-Württemberg (SW-Germany). The state territory of 35,742 km² is subdivided into eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ), which have been further subdivided into a total of 3976 spatial response units. Annual CO₂-mitigation rates where estimated from the changes in soil organic carbon content comparing 30 years simulations under conventional and zero tillage. Special attention was given to the influence of tillage practices on the losses of organic carbon through soil erosion, and consequently on the calculation of CO₂-mitigation rates. Under conventional tillage, mean carbon losses through erosion in the AEZ were estimated to be up to 0.45 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹. The apparent CO₂-mitigation rate for the conversion from conventional to zero tillage ranges from 0.08 to 1.82 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ in the eight AEZ, if the carbon losses through soil erosion are included in the calculations. However, the higher carbon losses under conventional tillage compared to zero tillage are composed of both, losses through enhanced CO₂ emissions, and losses through intensified soil erosion. The adjusted net CO₂-mitigation rates of zero tillage, subtracting the reduced carbon losses through soil erosion, are between 0.07 and 1.27 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ and the estimated net mitigation rate for the entire state amounts to 285 Gg C a⁻¹. This equals to 1045 Gg CO₂-equivalents per year with the cropping patterns in the reference year 2000. The results call attention to the necessity to revise those estimation methods for CO₂-mitigation which are exclusively or predominantly based on the measurements of differential changes in total soil organic carbon without taking into account the tillage effects on carbon losses through soil erosion.     

Estimates of species- and ecosystem-level respiration of woody stems along an elevational gradient in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico

We measured CO₂ efflux from stems of seven subtropical tree species situated along an elevational gradient in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico and scaled these measurements up to the landscape level based on modeled and empirical relations. The most important determinants of ecosystem stem respiration were species composition and stem temperature. At a species scale, measured CO₂ efflux per unit bole surface area at a given temperature was highest in the early successional species Cecropia schreberiana and lowest in species that inhabit high elevations such as Micropholis garciniifolia and Tabebuia rigida. Carbon dioxide efflux rates followed a diel pattern that lagged approximately 6 h behind changes in sapwood temperatures. At an ecosystem scale, our simulation model indicates a decreasing trend of stem respiration rates with increasing elevation due to shifts in species composition, lower temperatures and reductions in branch surface area. The highest estimated stem respiration rates were present in the lowland tabonuco forest type and the lowest rates were present in the elfin forest type (mean 7.4 and 2.1 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively). There was slight temperature-induced seasonal variation in simulated stem respiration rates at low elevations, with a maximum difference of 19% between the months of February and July. Our results coincide well with those of Odum and Jordan [Odum, H.T., Jordan, C.F., 1970. Metabolism and evapotranspiration of the lower forest in a giant plastic cylinder. In: Odum, H.T., Pigeon, R.F. (Eds.), A Tropical Rain Forest: A Study of Irradiation and Ecology at El Verde, Puerto Rico. U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Oak Ridge, TN, pp. I165–I189] for the tabonuco forest type and extend their work by presenting estimates and spatial patterns of woody tissue respiration for the entire mountain rather than for a single forested plot.     

Modeling the carbon cycle of urban systems

Although more than 80% of carbon dioxide emissions originate in urban areas, the role of human settlements in the biosphere evolution and in global carbon cycling remains largely neglected. Understanding the relationships between the form and pattern of urban development and the carbon cycle is however crucial for estimating future trajectories of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and can facilitate mitigation of climate change. In this paper I review state-of-the-art in modeling of urban carbon cycle. I start with the properties of urban ecosystems from the ecosystem theory point of view. Then I discuss key elements of an urban system and to which degree they are represented in the existing models. In conclusions I highlight necessity of including biophysical as well as human related carbon fluxes in an urban carbon cycle model and necessity of collecting relevant data.     

Urban expansion and its contribution to the regional carbon emissions: Using the model based on the population density distribution

The method is used for calculating regional urban area dynamics and the resulting carbon emissions (from the land-conversion) for the period of 1980 till 2050 for the eight world regions. This approach is based on the fact that the spatial distribution of population density is close to the two-parametric Γ-distribution [Kendall, M.G., Stuart, A., 1958. The Advanced Theory of Statistics, vol. 1.2. Academic Press, New York; Vaughn, R., 1987. Urban Spatial Traffic Patterns, Pion, London]. The developed model provides us with the scenario of urbanisation, based on which the regional and world dynamics of carbon emissions and export from cities, and the annual total urban carbon balance are estimated. According to our estimations, world annual emissions of carbon as a result of urbanisation increase up to 1.25 GtC in 2005 and begin to decrease afterwards. If we compare the emission maximum with the annual emission caused by deforestation, 1.36 GtC per year, then we can say that the role of urbanised territories (UT) in the global carbon balance is of a comparable magnitude. Regarding the world annual export of carbon from UT, we observe its monotonous growth by three times, reaching 505 MtC. The latter, is comparable to the amount of carbon transported by rivers into the ocean (196–537 MtC). The current model shows that urbanisation is inhibited in the interval 2020–2030, and by 2050 the growth of urbanised areas would almost stop. Hence, the total balance, being almost constant until 2000, then starts to decrease at an almost constant rate. By the end of the XXI century, the total carbon balance will be equal to zero, with the exchange flows fully balanced, and may even be negative, with the system beginning to take up carbon from the atmosphere, i.e., becomes a “sink”. The regional dynamics is somewhat more complex, i.e., some regions, like China, Asia and Pacific are being active sources of Carbon through the studied period, while others are changing from source to sink or continue to be neutral in respect the GCC.